Evaluating the impact of projected CO2, temperature, and rainfall change on groundwater resources in a rice-wheat dominated cropping region of the northwestern India

Abstract Increasing CO2 concentration, temperature rise, and changes in rainfall due to climate change are expected influence groundwater resources irrigated agricultural regions. A simulation study using AquaCrop MODFLOW models was undertaken assess the combined effects of increasing concentrations, temperature, on behavior a rice-wheat cropping region northwest India. Simulations were carried out for 2016–2099 period under two scenarios: concentrations corresponding different RCPs (Scenario-I) at constant concentration 369.4 ppm (Scenario-II). The results indicate that elevated negates effect rising evapotranspiration (ET) water demand, thus, lower ET is simulated Scenario-I than Scenario-II during future periods. projected resulted rice (2.3–6.3%) wheat (1.4–16.1%) irrigation demand Scenario-II. Of all RCPs, lowest level (GWL) decline 9.2, 20.5, 24.4 m from reference GWL (18.85 m) end early, mid, century periods, respectively, RCP8.5 Scenario-I. Simulation plays an important role while assessing systems.